Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 26 2020 | 7563 | 37502 | 239 | 57 | 1414 | 2088 |
| November 27 2020 | 7563 | 37665 | 241 | 57 | 1312 | 2021 |
| November 28 2020 | 7661 | 37844 | 243 | 57 | 1059 | 2035 |
| November 29 2020 | 7756 | 37967 | 243 | 57 | 978 | 1891 |
| November 30 2020 | 7790 | 38123 | 243 | 57 | 860 | 1641 |
| December 01 2020 | 7854 | 38250 | 245 | 58 | 779 | 1603 |
| December 02 2020 | 7909 | 38383 | 248 | 59 | 727 | 1307 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.6 | 4.7% | 34 | 0.3% | 58 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 5.3 | 10.2% | 74 | 0.54% | 161 | 1.18% |
| 20-29 | 19 | 17.1 | 27% | 196 | 0.94% | 336 | 1.61% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 10.3 | 16.6% | 121 | 0.89% | 225 | 1.65% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 7.9 | 12.2% | 89 | 0.85% | 150 | 1.43% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 7.7 | 12.8% | 93 | 0.74% | 160 | 1.27% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 5.7 | 9.6% | 70 | 0.61% | 124 | 1.08% |
| 70+ | 1 | 4.9 | 6.9% | 50 | 0.48% | 93 | 0.89% |
| All ages | 55 | 61.4 | 100% | 727 | 0.69% | 1307 | 1.25% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 26 2020 | 4530 | 22766 | 125 | 49 | 950 | 1307 |
| November 27 2020 | 4531 | 22828 | 126 | 50 | 838 | 1173 |
| November 28 2020 | 4535 | 22892 | 127 | 50 | 738 | 1097 |
| November 29 2020 | 4598 | 22959 | 130 | 51 | 704 | 1087 |
| November 30 2020 | 4666 | 23035 | 132 | 51 | 697 | 1086 |
| December 01 2020 | 4794 | 23095 | 134 | 52 | 619 | 1101 |
| December 02 2020 | 4921 | 23146 | 138 | 53 | 666 | 1124 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 2.7 | 4.4% | 29 | 0.37% | 39 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 8.1 | 11.6% | 77 | 0.92% | 102 | 1.21% |
| 20-29 | 20 | 9.1 | 14.1% | 94 | 1.32% | 167 | 2.35% |
| 30-39 | 22 | 10.9 | 15.9% | 106 | 1.26% | 208 | 2.47% |
| 40-49 | 22 | 12.0 | 19.5% | 130 | 1.68% | 205 | 2.64% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 7.9 | 12.3% | 82 | 0.85% | 161 | 1.66% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 5.3 | 8.3% | 55 | 0.65% | 101 | 1.2% |
| 70+ | 27 | 10.6 | 14% | 93 | 1.31% | 141 | 1.98% |
| All ages | 127 | 66.6 | 100% | 666 | 1.03% | 1124 | 1.74% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 26 2020 | 3465 | 15055 | 128 | 41 | 744 | 1337 |
| November 27 2020 | 3465 | 15195 | 128 | 41 | 711 | 1281 |
| November 28 2020 | 3558 | 15226 | 136 | 41 | 676 | 1161 |
| November 29 2020 | 3580 | 15261 | 139 | 41 | 557 | 939 |
| November 30 2020 | 3619 | 15354 | 142 | 41 | 481 | 898 |
| December 01 2020 | 3650 | 15395 | 148 | 41 | 438 | 896 |
| December 02 2020 | 3688 | 15466 | 151 | 41 | 438 | 806 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.1 | 5.3% | 23 | 0.42% | 39 | 0.72% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 3.3 | 7.1% | 31 | 0.57% | 68 | 1.25% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 4.7 | 12.8% | 56 | 1.24% | 101 | 2.23% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 5.7 | 13.2% | 58 | 1.07% | 124 | 2.28% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 4.7 | 12.3% | 54 | 1.09% | 105 | 2.11% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 5.3 | 14.8% | 65 | 0.96% | 134 | 1.97% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 6.4 | 14.8% | 65 | 1.03% | 109 | 1.72% |
| 70+ | 8 | 7.9 | 19.6% | 86 | 1.36% | 126 | 1.99% |
| All ages | 38 | 40.1 | 100% | 438 | 0.97% | 806 | 1.78% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 26 2020 | 7761 | 40101 | 157 | 34 | 1312 | 1743 |
| November 27 2020 | 7813 | 40286 | 157 | 35 | 1172 | 1629 |
| November 28 2020 | 7906 | 40422 | 158 | 35 | 1061 | 1680 |
| November 29 2020 | 8011 | 40550 | 158 | 35 | 1092 | 1726 |
| November 30 2020 | 8087 | 40669 | 162 | 35 | 1006 | 1638 |
| December 01 2020 | 8126 | 40839 | 170 | 36 | 839 | 1485 |
| December 02 2020 | 8209 | 40943 | 173 | 37 | 869 | 1364 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.6 | 3.7% | 32 | 0.27% | 46 | 0.39% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 9.3 | 10.9% | 95 | 0.57% | 133 | 0.8% |
| 20-29 | 19 | 15.6 | 20.3% | 176 | 0.83% | 272 | 1.28% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 12.1 | 15% | 130 | 0.96% | 214 | 1.57% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 10.7 | 12.8% | 111 | 0.82% | 179 | 1.32% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 10.6 | 13.5% | 117 | 0.82% | 190 | 1.34% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 8.4 | 10.9% | 95 | 0.67% | 160 | 1.13% |
| 70+ | 9 | 10.4 | 13% | 113 | 0.87% | 170 | 1.31% |
| All ages | 83 | 79.7 | 100% | 869 | 0.74% | 1364 | 1.15% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 26 2020 | 26367 | 272956 | 749 | 80 | 4144 | 5777 |
| November 27 2020 | 26412 | 273981 | 757 | 80 | 3482 | 5357 |
| November 28 2020 | 26843 | 274307 | 775 | 80 | 3369 | 5495 |
| November 29 2020 | 27236 | 275143 | 782 | 80 | 3367 | 5516 |
| November 30 2020 | 27489 | 275850 | 785 | 80 | 3172 | 5266 |
| December 01 2020 | 27600 | 276005 | 794 | 81 | 2946 | 4670 |
| December 02 2020 | 27830 | 276346 | 811 | 102 | 2964 | 4356 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 14.9 | 5.4% | 160 | 0.27% | 240 | 0.4% |
| 10-19 | 33 | 33.1 | 14.4% | 428 | 0.6% | 671 | 0.94% |
| 20-29 | 42 | 55.3 | 21.2% | 629 | 0.61% | 954 | 0.92% |
| 30-39 | 49 | 45.9 | 17.1% | 507 | 0.66% | 754 | 0.99% |
| 40-49 | 26 | 37.9 | 14.6% | 433 | 0.66% | 618 | 0.94% |
| 50-59 | 26 | 32.4 | 11.5% | 342 | 0.52% | 482 | 0.73% |
| 60-69 | 20 | 18.7 | 7.9% | 233 | 0.43% | 329 | 0.6% |
| 70+ | 27 | 24.7 | 7.8% | 232 | 0.47% | 308 | 0.63% |
| All ages | 230 | 262.9 | 100% | 2964 | 0.54% | 4356 | 0.8% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 26 2020 | 374537 | 2125202 | 16658 | 3240 | 57779 | 81149 |
| November 27 2020 | 375837 | 2133700 | 16715 | 3257 | 51989 | 74672 |
| November 28 2020 | 380870 | 2138110 | 16882 | 3285 | 49033 | 74559 |
| November 29 2020 | 384701 | 2143790 | 16999 | 3307 | 46229 | 72332 |
| November 30 2020 | 387235 | 2149996 | 17095 | 3313 | 42290 | 70477 |
| December 01 2020 | 391313 | 2156410 | 17372 | 3420 | 40144 | 67465 |
| December 02 2020 | 395090 | 2162616 | 17569 | 3502 | 40414 | 63253 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 126 | 157.4 | 4.3% | 1738 | 0.27% | 2706 | 0.42% |
| 10-19 | 364 | 392.7 | 10.9% | 4397 | 0.58% | 6926 | 0.92% |
| 20-29 | 650 | 615.6 | 17% | 6880 | 0.91% | 10695 | 1.41% |
| 30-39 | 649 | 567.4 | 15.5% | 6255 | 0.83% | 9941 | 1.31% |
| 40-49 | 603 | 538.0 | 14.5% | 5880 | 0.84% | 9271 | 1.33% |
| 50-59 | 556 | 555.9 | 15% | 6078 | 0.75% | 9669 | 1.19% |
| 60-69 | 442 | 418.9 | 11.4% | 4605 | 0.61% | 7219 | 0.95% |
| 70+ | 387 | 418.1 | 11.3% | 4581 | 0.72% | 6827 | 1.07% |
| All ages | 3777 | 3664.0 | 100% | 40414 | 0.69% | 63253 | 1.09% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124.9 | 118.3 | 160.5 | 61.4 | 207 | 28.9% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 173.8 | 66.6 | 105.3 | 50.5% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178.1 | 40.1 | 116.4 | 35.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115.4 | 80.4 | 127.8 | 79.7 | 151.6 | 36.9% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79.7 | 94.4 | 91.8 | 262.9 | 472.3 | 28.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 108.6 | 91.5 | 141.3 | 3664 | 6408.3 | 35.8% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 4.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.51 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-23 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3273"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges